Health experts warn Alberta could be on track for deadliest flu season on record

Alberta’s flu season is now the second deadliest in recent memory and, while the influenza peak has passed, the virus will continue to circulate for many months to come.

According to the province’s respiratory virus dashboard, 197 Albertans have died due to influenza so far this season.

this is it Second highest number of deaths Since the 2009–10 season, when Alberta began its universal seasonal flu vaccine program and data became publicly available.

“We’re probably on track to have the deadliest year on record, which is quite disappointing,” said Craig Jayne, a professor in the department of microbiology, immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Calgary.

were there There were 236 deaths during the entire 2024–25 season, 171 in the previous season and 121 in the 2022–23 season.

The death rate is also said to be the highest on the basis of population.

“The biggest concern is that we are not seeing this trend changing. Each of the last four years has been a record year for the number of deaths in the province.”

According to Jane, flu season usually lasts until March.

“It is too early to estimate the total impact of flu this season, although it is clearly already very high and may be the highest in recent years,” said Madison McKee, press secretary to the Minister of Primary and Preventive Health Services.

He said serious consequences usually subside quickly after the initial wave of flu. However, last year they continued to rise for several weeks, he said.

The number of weekly cases and hospitalizations have been declining since a surge in December. The latest data shows that as of January 17, 370 people were in hospital with influenza and 26 were in hospital. intensive care unit.

According to Dr. Stephanie Smith, an infectious disease physician at the University of Alberta Hospital, there are likely several factors contributing to the higher death rate this year, including a dominant strain (H3N2) that can cause more severe disease in older people, slight mismatches with vaccines and low vaccination rates.

“I suspect that our mortality rate this year will be higher than last year,” he said, noting that many people are ending up in the hospital with secondary bacterial infections such as pneumonia after getting sick with the flu.

1 in 5 Alberta people vaccinated

20 per cent of Albertans have received a flu vaccine so far this season, down slightly from 21 per cent all of last season.

The last time the vaccination rate was this low was in the 2010-11 season, According to the province’s website.

“We absolutely know that if we can increase our vaccination rates, that will prevent serious disease. That’s a fact,” Smith said.

Flu vaccination rates in Alberta and other parts of the country have been falling for several years.

“The fact that vaccination rates are low suggests that many of these deaths could have been prevented,” said Don Bowdish, an immunologist and professor of medicine at McMaster University.

“My real concern is that Alberta and some other provinces may not have learned the lesson of how important it is to promote vaccinations, provide clear and consistent messaging and make vaccines easy to obtain.”

the government answers

The Alberta government said it has given more than 13,000 more vaccinations so far this flu season than the same time last year.

“[This]is despite the widely reported fact that this year’s vaccine does not match the main circulating strain, which would be expected to reduce volumes. Any suggestion that this year’s flu rollout was compromised is simply false based on the data.”,Mackie said.

Despite concerns about vaccine mismatch this year, health experts have said the shot continues to provide security Against serious illness.

The province also said it will continue to promote vaccinationsn and this season’s caThe campaign included advertisements on radio, print, TV and digital platforms. It also provided updates on social media and its website.

“Any suggestion that actual receipt of this year’s vaccine will prevent overwhelming impacts from the current strain of flu is false,” its emailed statement said.

Vaccination rates have fallen for several years, and Alberta’s flu vaccination has historically been well below target rates, the province said.

“Before the pandemic it was around 30 percent or less, and even in 2009-10, an extraordinary effort to combat the H1N1 flu strain resulted in overall vaccination rates falling below 40 percent,” McKee’s email said.

“This is not to diminish the importance of vaccination, but simply to provide context that actual vaccination has not reached the ideal goal over the past two decades.”

Jenn, who is also deputy director of the Snyder Institute for Chronic Disease at the University of Calgary, said the goals have changed because of declining vaccination rates.

He said, “Last year the number of adult patients in the US was up about 45 percent nationwide. If we can achieve that, we will see a significant impact on the number of people needing care within the hospital system.”

“Alberta is still well below the Canadian average on many measures and many demographics, so that means there is work to be done and room for improvement.”

Jane said efforts have been made to promote vaccination, but they have not had the desired effect.

“We need to look at that trend and say clearly what is being done is not effective, and we need to come up with a new approach if we want to see those numbers reverse.”