6 more weeks of early spring or winter? Groundhogs (and lobsters) are ready for predictions
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It’s Groundhog Day – a long-standing tradition of seeing the animals come out of hibernation to predict whether there will be an early spring or a six-week winter.
Every February 2, groundhogs and even a crustacean emerge from their shelters to see if they see their shadows.
Here are some of the Canadian animal weather forecasters ready to make an early morning appearance:
- Shubenacadie Sam lives in Shubenacadie Wildlife Park, Nova Scotia.
- Lucy Lobster in Barrington, NS
- Wiarton Wiley in Ontario.
- Fred La Marmotte in Quebec.
- Van Isle Violet in Nanaimo, BC
In the US, perhaps the most famous weather forecast groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania, whose forecast is expected at 7 a.m.
Legend has it that if a groundhog (in Lucy’s case a crustacean) comes out of its hole on a sunny day and sees its shadow, it will return to hibernation for the six weeks of winter. But if it is cloudy and there is no shadow, Spring will come soon.
70 years of predictions at Warton
In Wiarton, population about 1,900, the Groundhog Day event is at Bluewater Park, with the beloved woodchuck set to preen at 8:07 a.m. There have been many Warton Willies over the 70 years, making the town on the Bruce Peninsula a major tourist destination.
Every year, there is an annual celebration, which begins with breakfast and fireworks at 7 am. Last weekend, there was also a curling event, chili cook-off, skating, a dance and family activities at Bluewater Park, where one of Willie’s enclosures is located.
Danielle Edwards, manager of economic development and corporate communications for the City of South Bruce Peninsula, said Groundhog Day events are often seen as homecomings.
“People have kind of taken off and spread their wings across Ontario and beyond. And then, family and friends come back for our Willie Weekend to celebrate this annual tradition together.”
As far as what people want Willie’s prediction to be, he said it’s always about a 50/50 split of early spring or more winter.
“We have people who would love to see six more weeks of winter for all the outdoor recreational activities. And then you have other people who would prefer sun and sand,” he said.
A massive winter storm has buried millions of people under a historic blanket of snow and ice, locking much of North America in a dangerous Arctic air mass. CBC’s Johanna Wagstaffe breaks down the rare atmospheric collision of a polar vortex and a glacial river — two extreme weather events that combined to create this record-breaking, high-impact event.
Groundhog Day Roots
As the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club website reports, Groundhog Day was first marked in the US in 1886 with the prophecy of Punxsutawney Phil.
The first official trip to Gobblers Knob was made on February 2, 1887.
Phil is perhaps the world’s most famous groundhog due to his longevity in the weather-forecasting business. He has also been featured in the film Groundhog Day Starring Bill Murray.
This tradition in Wiarton started as a joke in 1956. The city of South Bruce Peninsula says it was started by an “enthusiastic individual” named Mac McKenzie who had a “desire to relieve the winter gloom and bring some warmth to the community.”
He invited friends for a night on the town and released a fake news story stating that the event was in celebration of Groundhog Day. That prank release reached the hands of a Toronto Star reporter who was in town to report on the event.
The city’s website says, “In a moment of whimsy and spontaneity, when asked about the groundhog’s whereabouts, Mac playfully threw a fur hat into the snow.”
“Taking advantage of a memorable photo opportunity, the reporter immortalized the hat as a stand-in for the elusive groundhog.”
As far as the accuracy rate of these animal weather forecasters is concerned, it is all over the map.
Accuracy rates go up and down like the weather
according to weather networkWarton Wiley’s success rate since 2000 has been 29 percent, the lowest percentage among the five “marmot meteorologists.”
In the US, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) graded Last year there were 17 American groundhogs (including live and taxidermied), a prairie dog statue, and a tortoise. It determined that accuracy rates ranged from 25 percent (Mohave Manx tortoise) to 85 percent (New York’s Staten Island chuck).
Over the years, others have come up with their own way of making their own shadow-driven predictions on Groundhog Day. they include:
- Bonhomme Quèche: A person in costume who is part of the Winter Carnival in Shediac, NB.
- Manitoba Merv: A Puppet/Golf Club Cover.
- Alberta’s Balzac Billy: A man in a groundhog mascot costume.
- BC’s Okanagan Okie: A stuffed animal.
