The distribution of winners from both Mahayuti and MVA across Mumbai will play a crucial role in determining seat-sharing arrangements among alliance partners for the BMC polls, a TOI analysis shows. MVA, led by Shiv Sena (UBT) in Mumbai, holds sway in the island city while Mahayuti, spearheaded by BJP in the city, shows a stronger presence in suburban Mumbai, electoral analysis of the assembly elections reveals.Out of the 36 assembly seats in Mumbai, 26 are in the suburbs (from Bandra to Dahisar and from Chembur to Mulund) and 10 are in the island city (Colaba to Dharavi-Mahim).
Among the Senas, while CM Eknath Shinde’s party is stronger in the suburbs, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) triumphed over Shinde’s candidates in all three Island city constituencies that saw Sena vs Sena contests.
Assembly election data highlights a clear divide in voter preferences: In the suburbs, Mahayuti secured 51% of the vote, compared to MVA’s 35%. In the Island city, MVA led with 44% of the vote, edging out Mahayuti by two percentage points. MNS, not part of either alliance but still influential among Marathi speakers, garnered 6% and 10% of votes in the suburbs and Island city, respectively.
BJP achieved over 50% of votes in 13 of its winning constituencies, with Malabar Hill recording its highest at 74%. The party’s narrowest victories were in Ghatkopar West (43.77%) and Sion-Koliwada (48.26%).
In suburban areas, Sena contested eight seats against Sena (UBT), winning five. UBT, in contrast, secured three seats—Vikhroli, Dindoshi, and Jogeshwari. Shinde’s party also won a seat against Congress in Chandivli. UBT won two seats against BJP in Versova and Kalina and one against the NCP in Bandra East. Overall, Sena (UBT) received 23% of the suburban vote, while Shinde’s Sena garnered 18%, though the latter contested fewer seats.
Commenting on Jogeshwari’s result, where Ravindra Waikar’s wife Manisha lost to UBT, the Sena MP said, “Out of six wards in the constituency, four gave us leads. Only two, with significant minority populations, voted for UBT, giving them an advantage. It shows that we have a greater standing at the ward level everywhere in the city, whereas UBT dominates only minority areas.”
In the island city, UBT emerged victorious in all three direct contests against Sena in Mahim, Worli, and Byculla, but lost two seats to BJP. UBT also defeated MNS in one constituency. Congress lost to BJP in Sion-Koliwada and Colaba but secured victories against Sena in Dharavi and Mumbadevi.