
Quiet before storms: forecasts say that the calm Atlantic storm will not be there
In May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated an above normal Atlantic storm season, but it is still relatively high.
However, this may end very soon. And people were better prepared, experts say.
So far, there has been there Four designated stormsMost of them are short -lived, tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The latter is formed on 4 August and currently in the North Atlantic.
Four is slightly higher than nominated storms Average of 3.2 For this time of the year.
So why does it feel so calm?
“I think calm is a perspective,” Jennifer Collins said, a geology professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa. “In the recent decade, we have made many starts, so I think we are feeling like this is cool.”
But something else.
“It seems that it seems that it is not very active, it is that we have a lot of short -term storms. So when they do not live for a very long time, it has started to look inactive,” said Collins.
The tropical storm Andrea lasted for only two days, while Barry spread three. The longest tropical storm was Chantal, which lasted for five days and brought heavy rainfall to Carolinas.
But the tropical storm Barry greatly affected the weather pattern on Texas, causing a widespread flood, which caused a widespread flood At least 135 people diedCollins added.
The United Kazun Navy is one of the groups that are one of the groups helping to rescue efforts in Central Texas who have killed dozens and have disappeared many others. The vice-president of the non-profit group, Brian Tresher, has described some challenges of the work and many factors that he thinks that this flood is particularly fatal.
Chris Fogrti, manager of Canadian Hurricane Center, said that counting the names of just storms is not an accurate representation of weather activity.
“There are different ways to measure the activity of the storm season,” he said. “You have a number of storms coming. You can have 30 very weak storms. They can all have names, but if they are weak, it is still considered a quiet activity, such as non-active, even though there are very few storms.”
Unlike the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean has been quite active. Eight names have been storms, in which four have developed in storms.
“My research has shown that when you do less activity in the Atlantic, we look a little more in the Northeast Pacific, especially towards Hawaii, and they have seen a little more activity this year,” Coalins said.
prepare
Even before a quiet start during the storm season.
In 2022, the Atlantic Basin had three storms in June and July, with one – Hurricane Boni – was developing in a category 5 Saifir-Symns ScaleBut there was not a single name of a single name throughout the month of August.
However, the tropical storm and storm in September, a tropical depression (a pre-cursor for a tropical storm), two tropical storms and four storms, including two, developed in major storms, with constant winds with frequent winds with frequent winds with at least 178 km/h.
So the weather can still surprise us.
As this writing, the tropical storm dexter is away from the coast of Dexter Nova Scotia and there are two other areas that the US National Hurricane Center says that may develop in the coming days.
Some materials are required to create a storm: moist air, hot water and favorable upper-level winds.
But not all of them are present, Phogartha said. It is like trying to bake the cake without flour.
“For Canada, the duration of activity is usually more through the end of August and September,” said that Fograt. “It is a little calm so far this year, but it will definitely change. It’s some time to allow the storm to move to the Atlantic for the pattern and the tropics.”
In May forecast its storm, NOAA estimated between 13 to 19 nominated storms, of which six to 10 storms were formed. Among them, three to five major storms were estimated to be. He had 70 percent belief in these predictions.
It told CBC News that it was planning to update its forecast on 7 August.
For Collins, she is emphasizing that people should not let their guards down yet – even if they do not live on the coast, as the storm may have inland floods. The peak of the Atlantic storm is around August and September. as well as, Rapid intensity The storm has increased in recent years and can be extremely dangerous.
“We look at the years of rapid intensity, where (storm) reduces its pressure within just 24 hours, and its air speed is therefore, so quickly, very quickly,” he said.
“I hope we will see some of those storms season, so … so … I don’t think people should let their guard go down.”