How much of a role did climate change play in Hurricane Melissa?
Millions of people across the Caribbean are trying to cope with the devastating effects of Hurricane Melissa, which has devastated the region this week.
Like many recent hurricanes, Melissa underwent rapid intensification, which is defined as when the storm’s maximum sustained wind speed increases by 51 km/h in 24 hours.
Melissa strengthened to 112 km/h over the same period, making it what some are calling extreme intensification.
As we continue to burn fossil fuels, pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, the planet continues to warm, causing myriad changes to weather patterns and overall climate.
So what role did climate change play with Hurricane Melissa?
warm ocean
Scientists are getting better at analyzing the effects of climate change on severe weather events like drought, floods and storms.
There are a number of organizations that are conducting their own analysis, including Environment and Climate Change Canada,
One of these organizations – consisting of climate scientists from around the world – is climatometerIt rapidly analyzed Hurricane Melissa and found that both climate change and natural variability played a role.
It found that because of our changing climate, storms like Melissa are about 10 percent wetter and 10 percent windier than before. Natural variability played a role in its formation and path.
One of the main ways climate change plays a role is through changes in our oceans. the temperature has been Historically warmer than normalAnd that warm water acts as fuel for storms. The hotter the water, the more fuel it will burn.
Shel Winkle, meteorologist climate centralA group of independent scientists reporting on climate change said temperatures in the Caribbean Sea are 1.4 C to 2 C warmer than average.
“We know that water temperatures in this part of the Caribbean this time of year are likely to be 500 to 700 times warmer because we humans have put excess heat into the atmosphere that then sinks into the ocean,” Winkley said.,
This in turn may contribute to rapid intensification, as was the case with four of the five hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic basin.
“It’s something we didn’t see a few decades ago, but now we’re seeing at least every season, if not even multiple times,” Winkle said.
strong winds
Another independent analysis was conducted by the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, which focuses on climate change and the environment.
are using it Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS)The analysis found that climate change increased Melissa’s wind speeds by about seven percent, or 18 km/h.
Video taken from a U.S. Air Force aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, also known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, shows what it looked like flying into the eye of Hurricane Melissa on Monday as the giant storm approached Jamaica.
While many people focus on the storm’s sheer intensity, Ralph Toomey, director of the Grantham Institute and co-author of the analysis, said that’s not necessarily what we should be focusing on.
“People talk about rapid intensity. I think… that’s fair enough, but it actually happened a few days before the landslide… it went up rapidly to Category 4 in 24 hours,” he said.
“The second intensity was that as it approached the island, it actually got a whole lot nastier because it essentially became a Category 6 … but we don’t have that category because folklore says anything over five does the same amount of damage, basically complete damage. So there’s no need for that.”
The analysis also concluded that the probability of this type of storm was four times higher than in pre-industrial times.
“We think it’s just a matter of time before the warming happens, something that might have happened once in 8,000 years,” Toumi said. “Still (it) would be like a 1,000-year, 2,000-year event. So it’s still extremely unlikely, but then (the main news) is that it’s basically four times more likely.”
As far as destruction is concerned, the authors found that without climate change, a weaker storm would have been about 12 percent less damaging. (He did not focus on damage estimates because it was too early to tell what that number would be.)
What does all this mean?
Although the numbers may differ between rapid attribution groups due to their methodology, the message is still the same: climate change is altering storms.
As we pump more fossil fuels into our atmosphere, the oceans – which absorb more than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases – will continue to warm, and hurricanes will continue their destruction.
Asked by CBC News what this means for the future, Toumi said, “I think what it’s saying is, you know, there are limits to adaptation. People talk about, ‘Oh, we have to focus on adaptation and resiliency.’ And, you know, there are definitely benefits at some level.
“But you can’t adapt to Category 5. That’s going to cost you dearly. Basically, you can’t build that kind of resiliency. So there are limits to adaptation.”
