Beef prices are rising. This is why Canada is facing record-low cattle numbers

If there’s a bit of positive news for those who love to grill steaks in the summer or enjoy roast dinners during the chilly winter months, beef prices are expected to rise further in 2026 — but not as much as in recent years.

“The bad news is that it’s not going to go away,” said Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph in Guelph, Ontario.

Beef prices are at a record high after rising 16 percent from last year and 35 percent from the five-year average in October. The retail price of beef is expected to rise again next year.

The reasons behind the huge price are as simple as supply and demand, the supply of cows is historically low and the demand is incredibly high. Yet the situation is much more complex, with livestock farmers facing difficult decisions on the farm and the commodity being influenced by many factors such as international trade and severe weather events.

In general, meat prices increased at the highest rate of any food category in 2025 due to the rising cost of beef. Recent National Food Price Report by Dalhousie University in Halifax.

Experts are weighing in on the question, with a number of views on when shoppers might finally get relief at the meat counter.

for the love of beef

Whether it’s burgers on the barbecue or stew on a cold winter evening, there are certain foods that become traditions and part of food culture. Habits that may hold social significance may help explain why demand for beef is still high, despite sticker shock in restaurants and grocery stores.

“We love beef and beef is a favorite protein of Canadians,” von Massow said. “Canadians are very habitual creatures. So if something was in our basket at the grocery store last week, it will be in our basket at the grocery store this week.”

Still, a noticeable trend is that some buyers are eschewing higher-priced items for secondary cuts, such as choosing blade steaks instead of roasts. “Instead of giving up beef, we’re seeing people trade in beef,” he said.

The strong demand for beef can also be attributed to people wanting more protein in their diets.

“The demand for beef has been unprecedented,” said Guelph-based livestock market analyst Kevin Grier. “If you want to know who’s to blame for high beef prices, look in the mirror,” he said.

So far, the record prices don’t seem to be scaring off many buyers. But that demand is the only reason why prices are continuously increasing.

very few cows

For several decades, cattle numbers have been declining in Canada, and in recent years severe drought in parts of Western Canada has caused herd sizes to decline even further. Drought conditions pushed up the price of feed at the same time that other expenses such as fertilizer, labor and energy prices were rising.

Herd size in Canada is at its lowest level since the 1980s. In the United States, it is the smallest since the 1960s.

“It’s really dry, and it’s even drier in the United States, and that drives up costs dramatically,” said Ellen Goddard, an agricultural economist and professor emerita at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

“The cycle for beef is very, very long. I think we should be happy that we don’t eat elephant because the cycle would be even longer,” he said.

Look How much will groceries cost in Canada in 2026?:

Difficult choice for cattle farmers

Ranchers are facing a difficult decision on whether to expand their operations.

Cattle prices are at historic highs after increasing more than 20 per cent in each of the last two years, according to Canfax, a Calgary non-profit that researches Canadian beef statistics.

Farmers may choose to sell their cows at really high prices, but they may also decide to keep them for a few more years to produce calves. Holding your cows could temporarily push retail prices higher.

“If we want to rebuild the herd, what we really need is short-term pain, which is more heifer retention for producers, that actually reduces the supply of beef to the market to get a long-term increase in supply,” said Brenna Grant, executive director of Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.

For pastoralists, expanding their herds may also be risky given the prevalence of drought.

“We were buying feed for $250 to $300 a bale. That was unheard of before,” said Alberta cattleman Brenda Rosadiuk, describing how prices have risen in recent years due to drier pasture lands and farms.

A bale of hay typically sells for between $100 and $150, he said.

Ranchers have to consider many things, including their financial situation, age, and succession planning.

By 2033, 60 percent of farmers will be over the age of 65, representing one of the largest leadership transitions in the country’s history. rbc economics,

Succession planning in agriculture is a particular challenge because of the rising cost of agricultural land, volatility of income from year to year, and rural lifestyles that may be unattractive to younger generations.

“With high cattle prices, some producers are saying, ‘Hey, this is a good sign for us to retire or move on to something else,'” said Rosadiuk, who farms near Evansburg, about 100 kilometers west of Edmonton.

“Other people are saying, ‘Oh, I’ve got some renewed optimism here, and I’m going to try to rebuild my herd.'”

External factors affect prices

Prices in Canada are influenced by many factors outside the country, especially considering that beef has an open border with the US.

In 2025, the Trump administration imposed, changed, and removed tariffs on beef imports from several countries, including Argentina, Brazil, and Australia.

Tyson Foods, the largest US meatpacker, Plans announced last month To close the Nebraska beef plant and reduce operations at the Texas facility. Meanwhile, American cattle producers face the threat of a disease called new world screwwormA destructive pest, which is entering from Mexico.

All of these factors may have different effects on demand for Canadian beef.

Canada also imports beef from countries such as Mexico and Australia, while Canadian beef can be exported to many countries around the world.

“Prices are so strong in Canada and the United States that it’s a magnet beacon (for imports),” said livestock analyst Grier.

At the same time, some types of Canadian beef are exported because consumers in other countries are willing to pay higher prices for particular cuts that are not in as high demand in Canada, he said.

This is why it is common for some Canadian beef to be shipped to countries like South Korea, while some Australian beef may appear on store shelves in Canada.

the stakes are high

Despite all the changes in the industry, the consensus among experts is that beef prices will remain high until at least 2027, when supply will begin to improve significantly.

Still, the improvement in retail prices may be only “modest,” Grier said.

Rebuilding that herd will take time, he said, because of how long it takes for cattle to reproduce, especially compared to other farm animals like chickens.

“The livestock industry is like a ship. It takes a long time to turn around,” he said.

As far as demand is concerned, people’s appetite for red meat shows no signs of slowing down.

“We’re still leading the way on meat. We’re still going to restaurants, whether it’s hamburgers or striploin,” Grier said. “We’re still buying it.”