China rising as most sensible buyer for Canadian oil via Trans Mountain Pipeline

China has emerged as the top customer for Canadian oil, sent to the extended Trans Mountain Pipeline, ship tracking data show, as an American trade war has shifted the raw flow in the year as the pipeline has begun to operate.

China’s new interest in Canadian oil comes when US President Donald Trump’s trade war has long been formed between Vashington and Ottawa. It also reflects the impact of American sanctions on crude from countries such as Russia and Venezuela.

Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world, but its main oil producing province of Alberta is landlock with limited access to Tidawatter ports. This means that the bulk of Canadian oil is exported to the US through about four million barrels or 90 percent-north-south pipelines.

$ 34 billion trans mountain The pipeline carries oil on the Pacific coast where it can be loaded on tankers for exports. The expansion, which began operations on 1 May, 2024, tripled the capacity of the pipeline and became 890,000 barrels up to 890,000 barrels per day and opened opportunities for Canadian oil in the American West Coast and Asian markets.

Canada wants to diversify exports

While the oil currently exempt from the American tariff, Canada has demanded to diversify its exports due to the brief duties of its raw and Trump to annex the country of Trump.

Canada sent around 207,000 barrels (BPD) to China per day, as the Trans Mountain Extension ramped for the entire operation in June last year, shown on the ship tracking data KPler. This decade led to a huge increase by 2023 from an average of around 7,000 BPD.

The US took around 173,000 BPD from the pipeline during the same period.

China’s top position as a TMX buyer suggests some initial expectations that the US will be the largest buyer of crude shipped through the pipeline, owned by Canadian government.

Many people hoped that its barrels would land on West Coast Vs. Asia, which has access to cheap Russian oil.

Although Trump’s conservationist policies have made Canada more attractive to Chinese buyers in recent months, said Philip Rialt, director of China Institute at the University of Alberta.

Rialt said that China has also been reluctant to depend on Russian energy supply.

“Many Chinese refineries are also conscious of American restrictions, and therefore trying to diversify oil from Venezuela and other places,” he said.

Shifting flow

According to Statistics Canada, since the expansion of the pipeline, Canadian exports to countries other than the US increased by nearly 60 percent in 2024 to about 60 percent in 2024 to nearly 60 percent.

Other countries taking Canadian crude include South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei and Taiwan, shown ship tracking data.

In recent months, many Canadian politicians have called for new pipelines for coastal export terminals to reduce dependence on the US, but regulators, financial and political obstacles prevent that development.

TMX 2024 had an average of about 77 percent complete, according to documents filed with the Canada Energy Regulatory, below 83 percent of the company’s forecast, charging for cost overran during operator construction due to high tolls.

This year the pipeline is expected to be 84 percent, and 2027 ramps up to 92 percent.

Its operator, Trans Mountain Corp, has stated that it is looking at expansion projects that can add between 200,000 and 300,000 BPD capacity to the system.

Skip York, the main energy strategist with Turner, Mason & Co., said that Chinese’s new, stable supply is likely to go to Asia of any additional capacity on TMX, given the new, stable supply of crude.

He said, “I think you are going to flow all those aged vessels in the west for export to China”.