How is Canada preparing for the 2026 wildfire season?
Canada’s wildfire season may get off to a relatively quiet start, but the drought and hot summer could lead to another severe year, experts say.
Wildfire expert Mike Flanigan says this year will be a “litmus test” for whether Canada’s wildfire season, already in uncharted territory and driven by human-caused climate change, has entered a “new reality.”
“My story was that there would be bad fire years and there would be cool years. I’m now starting to think nationally that most years will be bad fire years,” said Flanigan, a wildland fire professor at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, B.C.
No one can predict exactly what Canada’s wildfire season will be like in April. Seasonal forecasts cannot account for fire events, such as lightning strikes, or hot, dry and windy weather conditions that promote individual fires and arrive at short notice.
Still, some indicators can help experts describe widespread wildfire risks. And Flanigan sees some cause for concern this season.
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Which parts of Canada are at risk?
Parts of Canada emerged from unusually dry or drought conditions over the winter, including historic wildfire hot spots in the southern interior of British Columbia, northern Manitoba and the eastern Northwest Territories.
Long-term forecasts suggest much of Canada could be warmer than normal in the coming months. and El Niño, a warming phase of a recurring climate pattern associated with changes in water levels in the Pacific Ocean. Expected to pick up steam this summer.
Still, much of Canada is entering wildfire season in better shape than the worst recent years. Richard Carr, a wildfire research analyst with Natural Resources Canada in Edmonton, said the stormy winter has left a deep blanket of snow across much of the country, especially in the far north.
“We’re really not seeing a lot of signs of unusual activity during April,” Carr said.
There are some exceptions, such as southern BC to southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Carr said those areas have already encountered some wildfire-friendly conditions.
Carr also has an eye on drought-stricken New Brunswick and areas around Hudson Bay and the eastern Northwest, which received below normal snowfall.
“It looks like we’re expecting fairly warm conditions through the summer and the rest of the country may start to get quite active sometime in June or July,” he said, though he downplayed the impact of El Niño on the wildfire season.
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Why such frequent severe fire seasons?
Canada is entering uncharted territory this season, coming off three consecutive severe fire years. last season was second worstTrailing only 2023 when wildfires burned nearly 150,000 square kilometers of land.
Scientists say the burning of fossil fuels is accelerating climate change, increasing the risk of longer and more intense wildfires. A hotter environment can suck excess moisture from twigs and pine needles and turn the forest floor into a tinder box waiting for a spark. It also increases the likelihood and severity of heat waves and droughts that trigger fires.
Management of Canada’s forests has begun in recent years release more carbon than they absorbStrengthening climate feedback loops. A NASA study found that in the most striking example, the 2023 wildfires released more planet-warming emissions than almost any country on Earth, except China, India and the United States.
Extreme wildfire behavior is also becoming more common, Flanigan said. Wildfires like the Jasper 2024 Complex can burn so intensely that they generate their own storms that spawn lightning strikes and ignite new areas. Flanigan said the 2023 season marked the most fire-producing storms recorded in a single season, with more than 140 in Canada alone. The previous global record was 100, set two years ago.
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Fire shows its harm in many ways. Thousands of people have fled wildfires across Canada during recent seasons and studies show high rates of post-traumatic stress among those evacuated.
Even away from a fire, smoke poses a serious health hazard. A recent Health Canada review estimates that smoke exposure during the 2023 wildfires could cause approximately 400 acute and 5,400 chronic premature deaths. Studies estimate billions of dollars in medical costs, lost productivity, and pain and suffering.
What you can do to reduce the risk
As the country emerges from winter, it’s easy for people to forget that they need to be alert to wildfire risks when they go out on the landscape, said Derrick Forsythe, wildfire information officer with Alberta Wildfire. He said there have already been reports of some abandoned campfires in southern parts of the province, although thankfully they did not cause major fires.
“This is a volatile time of year for us because there’s so much potential fuel there,” Forsythe said, referring to dead vegetation exposed after snow melt.
“Make sure everything is outside and cool to the touch. You know, just do that thing to help reduce the risk of new wildfires in the spring season.”
