National home sales declined in November due to housing activity in ‘holding pattern’, CREA says

National home sales declined 10.7 per cent in November compared with the same month last year, as the Canadian Real Estate Association says activity has shifted to a holding pattern into 2026.

The association said 33,895 properties changed hands across the country last month, as home sales also declined 0.6 percent from October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The actual national average sales price of a home sold in November was $682,219, down two percent from a year earlier.

Sean Cathcart, senior economist at CREA, said some sellers are making price concessions to strike deals before the end of 2025 after a mid-year rally.

“That said, given the Bank of Canada’s clear signal that rates are now as good as they’re likely to get, many fixed-rate borrowers will no doubt be waiting for the green light, so our view is that activity will continue to increase next year,” he said in a press release.

The central bank kept its key rate on hold at 2.25 percent last week, with economists expecting it to remain unchanged next year. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said rates are at the level they need to be to balance inflation and economic growth.

This will halt the decline that began in June 2024 to bring the key rate below five percent, which also includes a one percentage point cut this year.

CREA’s home price index, which is intended to represent sales of typical homes, declined 0.4 percent between October and November and are down 3.7 percent on a year-on-year basis.

‘Proof’ that home buyers are pulling back

But some real estate watchers are less confident that change is likely in the near term.

NerdWallet Canada spokesperson Clay Jarvis said the November sales decline is “proof that Canadian home buyers are being held back by more than just interest rates.”

“Bathling inflation over the past two years has left Canadians tired and uncertain. If their savings are gone, where is their down payment coming from?” he said in a statement.

“It is difficult to see how 2026 will be any better than 2025 for home sales, especially if the cost of living is what is attracting buyers.”

Marco Pedri, a Toronto-based broker with Shoreline Realty, said he believes it could take until the new year for demand to pick up again as concerns remain about tariffs, the job market and the broader economy.

“And yet I think it won’t be a huge increase,” he said in an interview.

“I think we remain stable for the foreseeable future. I don’t think anyone needs to look too hard or be so cautious that they’re going to miss the boat or anything. I really don’t see any improvement until late 2026, maybe even 2027.”

For first-time homebuyers, Pedri said it may be even more difficult to find the motivation to move off the coast.

He said some people had planned to move after prices had been low for several years, but were still feeling hesitant after the market downturn.

“With all these external pressures that are causing this recession, the psychological aspect of it is, ‘Am I really making the right decisions?'”

Home prices likely to fall due to oversupply

TD economist Rishi Sondhi said home prices are likely to continue to fall due to excess supply in BC and Ontario. Meanwhile, tight markets should lead to strong price increases elsewhere in the country.

“November was a soft month for resale housing, with Canadian sales and prices both down,” he said in a note.

“However, the November sales decline was modest, and sales have increased in six of the past eight months. As such, we are not yet confident in our view that Canadian sales will exceed expectations next year, given pent-up demand in BC and Ontario and some improvement in job markets in 2026.”

New listings declined 1.6 percent month-on-month, the association said.

There were 173,000 properties listed for sale across Canada at the end of November, up 8.5 per cent from a year earlier but 2.5 per cent below the long-term average for that time of year.