Trump’s tariff fight at the Supreme Court could become a messy refund fight for businesses

Company executives, customs brokers and trade lawyers are awaiting a Supreme Court decision on the legality of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs — and a potential battle to get a potential $150 billion refund from the U.S. government for duties already paid by importers if he loses.

Fears that the court would strike down tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 grew after November arguments in the case when conservative and liberal judges alike expressed skepticism about whether that law gave them the authority to impose tariffs.

The court is expected to issue a ruling on Friday but, as is customary, has not said which case or cases will be dealt with.

Some companies anticipate that even if the court invalidates Trump’s tariffs, the Republican president will not make it easy for them to get refunds.

“Giving the money back is not in the government’s DNA. And Trump wouldn’t want to give the money back,” said Jim Estill, CEO of Danby Appliances, a Canadian company that sells small refrigerators, microwaves and laundry appliances through big-box stores including Home Depot.

The products are made in China and other Asian countries targeted by the Trump tariffs. Estill said if Danby can get $7 million back, he’s also concerned Home Depot and its customers would want a cut.

“It’ll just be a dog’s breakfast,” Estill said.

Approximately US$150 billion was collected

Trump is the first president to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose tariffs. Historically this law has been used to impose sanctions on American adversaries or freeze their assets.

Their IEEPA-related tariffs generated US$133.5 billion in estimated collections between February 4 and December 14, 2025, the date of the most recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). As calculated by Reuters, the current total is projected to reach US$150 billion based on continuation of average daily collection rates from late September to mid-December.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has expressed confidence that the Supreme Court will support Trump.

And U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said that Treasury and CBP will need to resolve any refund authorizations, and expressed confidence that any lost revenue could be recouped with new tariffs imposed by Trump under other legal authorities.

Trump imposed IEEPA-related tariffs in two ways. Last April, he announced “reciprocating” tariffs on goods imported from most US trading partners based on the national emergency he declared regarding the US trade deficit. In February and March, he imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, calling the painkiller fentanyl and illicit drug trafficking a national emergency.

Companies are eager for refunds, but not optimistic

Any refund process will depend largely on whether the Supreme Court directs the refund or instead sends the case to a lower court, possibly the Court of International Trade, according to Joseph Spraggen, a New York customs attorney with the firm Grunfeld, Desiderio, Lebowitz, Silverman & Kleistedt.

Importers generally have 314 days to make improvements before their imports are “expired” and no refunds are allowed. This deadline for imports from China affected by the tariffs has passed in February 2025.

Some companies, including warehouse-club operator Costco, have filed preemptive lawsuits against CBP to preserve their rights to potential refunds. Costco described the action in a legal filing as necessary because even if the Supreme Court finds the duties unlawful, importers who have paid IEEPA-related duties are “not guaranteed a refund for unlawfully collected tariffs” without judicial relief.

Tuna canner Bumble Bee Foods, cosmetics maker Revlon, Ray-Ban glasses maker EssilorLuxottica, Kawasaki Motors and Yokohama Tire have filed similar lawsuits.

Basic Fun! Jay Foreman, CEO of Inc., which sells Tonka trucks, Care Bears and K’Nex construction toys, expressed doubt that the company would receive any of the $6 million in US tariffs paid before the Christmas sales rush. Foreman said he expects the Trump administration to “obfuscate or delay” the refund payments, even if they are ordered to be paid.

Pete Mento, business advisory director of the Baker Tilly consulting firm, said his best advice is for companies to maintain meticulous records and move fast. Mento said he anticipates that companies will have to prove they paid the IEEPA-based tariff before getting a refund.

“People who get their claims early and file them properly get benefits the fastest,” Mento said. “And, knowing the way the processes work in Washington, it could be years before you see that money.”

A technical change disclosed by CBP on Jan. 2 will move all tariff refunds to electronic disbursement starting Feb. 6, raising hopes for a streamlined process.

While the move dampens importers’ hopes for a fully automated refund process, “it kind of signals that Customs is absolutely ready to move forward with refunds, if the Supreme Court actually rules that way,” said Angela Lewis, global head of customs at freight forwarder and logistics firm Flexport.

A CBP spokesperson did not respond to questions about how the agency would handle a decision against Trump’s tariffs if that happens.