uh oh. Dangerous polar vortex may appear soon
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In 2014, the term “polar vortex” became popular due to falling temperatures in Canada and the United States.In some places, it was It’s colder than Mars,
Well, get ready to hear more about it. forecasterParts of western and central Canada are set to feel the effects of this event which will bring cold weather in the coming weeks. And it may move toward eastern Canada.
“The European (latest model), looks like a very impressive cold pattern is setting up,” said Judah Cohen, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
“It’s going to be cold east of the Rockies… you’ll hear about Calgary, definitely Winnipeg.”
Although the term became popular a decade ago, the truth is that a polar vortex is always around. It’s just that it’s usually higher in the north.
A polar vortex sits in the upper atmosphere, specifically the stratosphere. If it’s stable, it stays there. However, occasionally in winter, it becomes unstable and moves far south, bringing cold air into lower latitudes. It interacts with the jet stream in the troposphere, basically, where we humans live, and that’s what brings cooler temperatures than normal.
“There’s a disruption of the polar caps about once every two years. So you get very intense warming, like tens of degrees Celsius over a few days, associated with the breaking or stretching or disruption of these winds,” said Michael Sigmund, a research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
different types of polar vortex
Cohen pointed out that not all polar vortices are the same.
One is called sudden stratospheric warming, where extreme heating occurs in the upper atmosphere, about 30 kilometers above Earth. This disrupts the flow and directs it southwards.
“Sudden stratospheric warming is what gets everyone most excited,” Cohen said. “It could have a big impact, not because of the intensity, but because of its longevity.”
Then there are the polar vortices that split, and some that stretch down to the south.
So which one is it?
The jury is still out, he said, although some believe that this will be a sudden stratospheric warming event, Which, contrary to its name, brings cold air to the south.
“If this actually materializes, it will be the first on record,” Sigmund said.
Interestingly, Sigmund left Toronto for the more temperate climate of Victoria after the polar vortex freeze of 2014.
“We moved in May, but I always say, oh, that was our goodbye,” he said.
Whether this would be a sudden stratospheric warming event or just a plain old polar vortex doing its thing, it doesn’t really matter, Cohen said. It’s going to be cold.
But where will it go after hitting western and central Canada?
“Does it dive straight south or does it move eastWard?” Cohen said. “That’s probably the biggest question.”
